An Optimization Study of Provincial Carbon Emission Allowance Allocation in China Based on an Improved Dynamic Zero-Sum-Gains Slacks-Based-Measure Model

In order to achieve its 2030 carbon emission peak target, China needs adjust and allocate energy consumption initial allowances for each province in a phased planned manner. Thus, this study applied an improved dynamic undesirable zero-sum-gains slacks-based-measure (ZSG-SBM) model evaluate provincial CO2 reduction scenarios allocation 2015–2019 calculate the optimal values of 2030. The results showed that China’s efficiency total exhibited rising then declining trends during most input–output term had room improvement. Furthermore, after four adjustment iterations ZSG-SBM model, modeled achieved whole country. final 19 provinces were allowed increase their emissions 2030, while remaining 11 needed reduce emissions. findings paper can help regulators establish fairer more effective policy solutions promote regional synergistic reduction, national goal emissions, green, coordinated, sustainable development economy.